DEFENSE SPENDING AND ECONOMIC GROWTH IN TURKEY: A LINEAR AND NON‐LINEAR GRANGER CAUSALITY APPROACH

This paper uses linear and non‐linear Granger causality methods to determine the causal relationship between defense spending and economic growth in Turkey for the period 1949–2004. The innovative feature of this paper is that it provides evidence regarding the nonlinear causal dependence between military spending and economic growth in Turkey. The empirical results contribute to the empirical literature by indicating support for both linear and non‐linear causality between military expenditures and economic development and they may prove useful in theoretical and empirical research by regulators and policy makers.     

Boko Haram terrorism in Nigeria

Since the July 2009 Boko Haram terrorist outburst in Nigeria, there have been increasing questions on the phenomenon in the country. There has not been any substantial analysis on the emergence of the Boko Haram group and its terrorist activities in Nigeria as the out-rage continues. This study is advanced to explain the phenomenon of Boko Haram terrorism in Nigeria. It employs the levels of analysis framework popular in the field of international relations to explain the terrorism at three major levels: individual, state and international. The study relies on dependable news reports, which include interviews with key actors relevant to the subject matter, and finds that Boko Haram terrorism has its roots in the ideology and motivations of its founder and members, the failures and deficiencies of the Nigerian state, and the modern trend of religious terrorism in the international system.     

EXTENDED DETERRENCE IN THE MIDDLE EAST

The article presents and analyzes the US extended deterrence commitments in the Middle East as well as those provided by regional states, and assesses the effectiveness and credibility of these commitments. The article then proceeds to analyze a situation wherein Iran successfully develops nuclear weapons. It considers first the security requirements and alternatives of Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) states, and then proceeds to assess the stability—or instability—of an Israeli-Iranian nuclear balance. The enhancement of US extended deterrence in the region is required in order to deter Iran, reassure allies, and contribute to the stability of an Israeli-Iranian nuclear balance. The article also discusses several contextual issues, such as: the future form of US extended deterrence; distinguishing between the latter and other US extended deterrence commitments; and the different approaches of specific GCC states and Israel.     

NUCLEAR PROLIFERATION

As the potential for the involvement of corporations in the manufacture of nuclear weapons has increased, particularly through dual-use technology, global regulation has failed to keep pace. Where regulation of private corporations does exist, in the form of treaties, UN resolutions, or more informal arrangements, the obligations fall only on states. This state of affairs is a result of international law's traditional deference to state sovereignty; yet, it has led to significant shortcomings in the global regulatory regime, where states are unwilling or unable to meet their obligations. While radical departures from the traditional model of international law might remove the regulatory gaps caused by noncompliant states, such changes are unrealistic in the current political climate. More realistic changes must be focused on, offering greater recognition of the role of private corporations in nuclear proliferation and increasing state compliance with existing regulation.     

基于时滞分割法的具有leakage项时滞的离散型神经网络状态估计

摘要：研究一类具有leakage时滞的离散型神经网络的状态估计问题．通过构造新的Lyapunov泛函得到保证估计误差全局渐近稳定的充分条件,并通过求解一个线性矩阵不等式（LMI）得到状态估计器的增益矩阵．采用一种新的时滞分割方法将变时滞区间分割为多个子区间,使该结果在获得更小的保守性同时也降低了计算的复杂度．     

Steady-state analysis of load balancing with Coxian-2 distributed service times

This paper studies load balancing for many-server (N servers) systems. Each server has a buffer of size b ? 1, and can have at most one job in service and b ? 1 jobs in the buffer. The service time of a job follows the Coxian-2 distribution. We focus on steady-state performance of load balancing policies in the heavy traffic regime such that the normalized load of system is λ = 1 ? N^?α for 0 < α < 0.5. We identify a set of policies that achieve asymptotic zero waiting. The set of policies include several classical policies such as join-the-shortest-queue (JSQ), join-the-idle-queue (JIQ), idle-one-first (I1F) and power-of-d-choices (Po d) with d = O(N^α log N). The proof of the main result is based on Stein's method and state space collapse. A key technical contribution of this paper is the iterative state space collapse approach that leads to a simple generator approximation when applying Stein's method.     

多旋翼无人机模型预测抗扰避障制导

多旋翼无人机的自主避障是完成复杂任务的基础,避障的效果直接影响无人机执行任务的效能。针对存在外部扰动的无人机避障问题,提出了一种基于模型预测的抗扰避障制导律设计方法。通过设计干扰观测器对系统动态中的外部干扰进行了估计,并基于李雅普诺夫函数方法设计辅助制导律用于建立稳定性约束条件。结合前两者与模型预测控制,在模型预测控制优化求解中考虑无人机与障碍物的关系,根据所设计的制导律求解水平线速度与偏航角速度指令实现无人机的避障。对所提出的避障制导律进行数值〖BHDWG8,WK10YQ,DK1*2,WK1*2D〗〖XCLQX.TIF;%129%129〗听语音 聊科研与作者互动 仿真和实物飞行验证,结果表明了所提方法的有效性。     

高校辅导员的职业形象与工作状态——基于知乎平台文本数据的质性研究

随着我国高等教育学生培养模式的演变与大学生心理健康教育重要性的突显,高校辅导员除思想政治教育和价值引领的主要职责外,更多承担起了大量的学生日常事务管理,其工作越来越呈现出了琐碎性、重复性、职业上升通道狭窄、导生关系紧张的明显特点。本研究基于知乎平台的文本数据,采用扎根理论的分析思路,对高校辅导员的职业形象及其工作状态进行刻画。研究发现:(1)在辅导员制度良性运行的情况下,辅导员与学生之间呈现出主体关系的平等性与沟通交流的友好性,但是一旦辅导员制度的运行走向异化,师生关系趋向紧张;(2)辅导员处于高校学生管理的第一线,尽管诸多问题的根源并非辅导员本身的工作失职,学生也容易将对制度规则、管理模式的不满泛化地转移至辅导员的身上,双方缺乏理解;(3)辅导员职责早已超越了行政事务性工作的范畴,作为院校与学生的中介点,辅导员身处于多元诉求与多重利益的交合处。平衡与协调多元主体之间的不同诉求成为辅导员工作的重点与难点。对此,要更加关注高校辅导员群体,从建立科学的多方参与工作评价机制与打造专业化、职业化的发展体系两方面对现有辅导员制度加以完善,将院校行政系统评价与学生群体评价相结合,同时加强辅导员的专业技能培训,为辅导员提供更加专业化的职业晋升通道。     

Higher‐order Markov chain models for categorical data sequences*

In this paper we study higher‐order Markov chain models for analyzing categorical data sequences. We propose an efficient estimation method for the model parameters. Data sequences such as DNA and sales demand are used to illustrate the predicting power of our proposed models. In particular, we apply the developed higher‐order Markov chain model to the server logs data. The objective here is to model the users' behavior in accessing information and to predict their behavior in the future. Our tests are based on a realistic web log and our model shows an improvement in prediction. © 2004 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2004     

稳健局部线性嵌入方法

针对局部线性嵌入方法对于噪声的敏感性,从分析噪声对数据集局部特性的影响入手,提出了稳健局部线性嵌入方法。通过与局部线性嵌入方法的理论分析和实例对比,表明稳健局部线性嵌入方法不仅对噪声影响不敏感,而且对邻域的选择有较好的适应性,可更好地挖掘数据集的本征特性,具有更强的数据可视化能力。